CS2/CSGO Trade Up Calculator
Calculate trade-up contract outcomes, probabilities, expected value, and profit/loss potential. Select 10 skins of the same rarity to see your possible results.
Outcome Probabilities
Chance of each possible outcome
Profit/Loss Distribution
Expected profit or loss per outcome
Calculation Statistics
See how many trade-up calculations have been made over time
Trade Up Guides & Articles
Trade Up Calculator: CS2 Contract Expected Value
The Exact Math Behind Every CS2 Trade Up Contract
A trade up contract takes 10 skins of identical rarity and outputs one skin of the next rarity tier. You put in 10 Mil-Spec skins, you get out one Restricted skin. You put in 10 Classified skins, you get one Covert. The rarity ladder runs Consumer Grade, Industrial Grade, Mil-Spec, Restricted, Classified, and Covert, and trade ups only move you one step up that ladder per contract.
The skins you input must come from the same weapon collection. For standard contracts, all 10 must share a single collection. For StatTrak contracts, mixing collections is permitted as long as every skin is a StatTrak variant. The output skin is drawn randomly from all eligible skins at the next rarity tier across the collections you used, which is exactly why collection selection is where most of your edge lives.
Float is the other half of the equation. The output float is calculated as the arithmetic mean of your 10 input floats. This is not random. It is deterministic, and once you understand that, float manipulation becomes one of the few places in CS2 skin trading where you can genuinely engineer an outcome. The range of possible floats for any output skin is capped by its own minimum and maximum float values, so your average input float must land within that window for the skin to even be achievable.
Expected value swings dramatically based on which collections you combine. If two collections share the same next-tier rarity pool but one collection has a high-value Covert skin with a 20% probability weight and the other does not, the choice of collection is worth more than almost any other variable in the contract.
How Stacking Low-Float Inputs Turns a Breakeven Contract Into a Profitable One
The key insight is that some Covert skins are worth two, three, or even ten times more at a low float than at a high one. A Factory New version of a desirable Covert can command a significant premium over a Well-Worn copy of the same skin. If one of your possible output skins has a steep float-to-price curve, engineering your input average to land in the Factory New or Minimal Wear window changes the entire EV calculation. You are not changing the probability of landing that skin. You are changing what it is worth when you do.
How to Identify CS2 Trade Up Contracts With Positive Expected Value
Most trade up contracts lose money. The Steam Market fee, the randomness of outcome selection, and the gap between input cost and output value all work against you by default. Finding profitable contracts means doing the math before committing any float, and this calculator runs those numbers in seconds.
Calculate Your Total Input Cost First
Start with what you are spending. Pull current Steam Market prices for each of the 10 skins you plan to use and add them together. Use the actual buy order or listed price depending on how you are sourcing the skins. The total input cost is your break-even floor. Everything else in the analysis is measured against this number.
Calculate Expected Value Across Every Possible Output
Expected value is the sum of each possible output skin's value multiplied by its probability of appearing. If a contract has three possible outputs with probabilities of 50%, 30%, and 20%, and those skins are worth , , and respectively, the expected value is ( x 0.50) + ( x 0.30) + ( x 0.20), which equals . That is the average return you would expect if you ran the contract an infinite number of times.
A contract is profitable when the expected value exceeds your total input cost plus the Steam Market fee. The fee on most skins is 13% of the sale price, which means a EV output actually nets you around .36 after fees. If your inputs cost , you are in the green. If they cost , you are not.
Use Float Targeting to Improve Expected Value
Once you have the base EV calculation, layer in float analysis. Check the float-to-price relationship for each possible output skin. If one output has significantly higher value at low float, and your input average is currently sitting at 0.15, you may be leaving money on the table by not pushing that average lower. Swap in lower-float versions of your inputs, re-run the expected value with updated skin prices based on the projected output float, and see if the contract crosses into profitability.
Test Multiple Input Combinations Before Spending Anything
The calculator lets you run scenarios without committing. Change which collection you are pulling inputs from, swap float ranges, adjust the mix of skins. A contract that loses 8% with one input set might break even or show a 12% gain with a different configuration. The cost of running ten more calculations is nothing. The cost of committing to a losing contract is real.
StatTrak Contracts and Why the Rules Are Different
StatTrak trade ups operate under a different constraint set, and that constraint set is why they tend to offer better expected value than standard contracts.
Every one of your 10 inputs must be a StatTrak skin. There are no exceptions and no workarounds. In return for that requirement, every possible output from the contract will also be StatTrak. This matters enormously because StatTrak versions of Covert skins carry a consistent price premium across almost every skin in the game. The floor is higher, the ceiling is higher, and the expected value calculation reflects both.
The price gap between StatTrak and non-StatTrak versions of the same skin varies considerably by skin. On less popular skins the premium might be 30%. On highly desirable Coverts it can be 100% or more. When you are building a StatTrak contract, you are paying a premium on inputs to access a pool of outputs that is systematically more valuable than its non-StatTrak equivalent.
The highest-ceiling trade up strategy in CS2 right now combines StatTrak inputs with deliberate float stacking toward a specific Covert output that has a steep float premium. The input cost is higher, the execution requires more precise sourcing, and the payoff when it lands is the most significant return available from trade up contracts.
Trade Up Contract Mistakes That Drain CS2 Players' Wallets
The most expensive mistake in trade up contracts is forgetting the Steam Market fee. A contract that appears to break even at face value is actually losing you 13% of every sale. Build the fee into every calculation before you buy a single input skin.
The second most common error is treating float as irrelevant. Players focus on the probability of hitting each output skin and ignore the float of that output entirely. If your inputs average at 0.35 and the profitable output skin you were targeting has a maximum float of 0.25, you cannot hit Factory New or Minimal Wear on that skin from this contract. The skin you land will be worth considerably less than the price you used in your EV calculation.
Using skins from collections where every Covert-tier output is low value is a structural problem that no amount of float manipulation fixes. The collection selection determines your output pool. If that pool is weak, the contract is weak regardless of your inputs.
Community databases like csfloat.com and various Discord servers track contracts that are known to be profitable based on current market prices. Spending 10 minutes checking these before building your own analysis is not laziness. It is due diligence.
Finally, rarity labels can look different depending on where you are in the game interface. The color coding is not perfectly consistent across every menu and inventory view. Before committing to a contract, verify rarity through the weapon's collection page or a skin database rather than relying on what you see in a single menu.
How Trade Up Contracts Work
- Input: 10 skins of the same rarity grade
- Output: 1 skin of the next higher rarity from one of the input collections
- Probability: Each possible outcome's chance = (skins from that collection / 10)
- Float: Output float is calculated from input average float and the output skin's float range
- Formula: Output Float = (Average Input Float) × (Max Float - Min Float) + Min Float
- Strategy: Mix collections to target specific high-value outcomes with better odds
Frequently Asked Questions
Open your inventory and select 10 skins of the same rarity tier. Every skin must come from a valid weapon collection, and for standard contracts they must all be from the same collection. Click the trade up button, confirm the inputs, and the game outputs one skin drawn randomly from all possible skins at the next rarity tier in the collections you used. You cannot influence which specific skin drops, but you can influence the output float through your input selection, and you can influence the output pool by choosing which collections you draw inputs from. The entire process is permanent once confirmed.
Expected value is the probability-weighted average return across all possible outcomes. For each skin that could come out of your contract, you multiply its current market price by the probability that it drops, then sum all of those products together. The result tells you what the contract returns on average over many repetitions. A profitable contract has an expected value that exceeds your total input cost plus the 13% Steam Market fee. This calculator does that math automatically once you enter your 10 input skins and their float values.
The output float of your contract is the arithmetic mean of your 10 input floats, and float directly affects market price for many skins. A Factory New version of a Covert skin can be worth significantly more than a Field-Tested version of the exact same skin. This creates an opportunity: if you know which output skin you want and that skin has a steep float-to-price curve, you can deliberately stack low-float inputs to push your output average into the high-value range. Float manipulation is one of the few genuine skill elements in CS2 skin trading.
For standard contracts, no. Every input skin must come from the same weapon collection. If you try to combine skins from different collections, the game will not allow you to submit the contract. For StatTrak contracts, the rules are different. StatTrak trade ups permit skins from multiple collections as long as every skin is a StatTrak variant. This opens up a broader range of possible output skins and is one of the reasons StatTrak contracts can sometimes be structured with better expected value than their standard equivalents.
A StatTrak trade up contract requires that all 10 of your input skins are StatTrak versions of their respective skins. In return, the output will always be a StatTrak skin at the next rarity tier. The profitability advantage comes from the price premium that StatTrak skins carry at every rarity level. When your output pool consists entirely of StatTrak Covert skins, the expected value of that pool is systematically higher than the equivalent standard pool. The inputs cost more, but the outputs are worth more, and for well-researched contracts the margin often favors the StatTrak route.
Steam takes 13% of the sale price on most CS2 skin transactions, with 10% going to Steam and 3% going to CS2 itself. This fee applies every time you sell an output skin, which means your real return from any contract is the sale price minus 13%. A contract with a expected value nets you approximately .50 after fees. If your inputs cost , that is a profitable contract. If the EV was before accounting for fees and your inputs cost , you are actually losing money. Never evaluate a contract using pre-fee prices.
The Covert rarity tier is the highest you can target with a trade up contract. Covert skins sit at the top of the standard rarity ladder and cannot be used as inputs because there is no tier above them in the collection system. This also means that Classified skins are the most common input for high-value contracts, since using 10 Classified skins produces one Covert. Covert skins include some of the most expensive and sought-after items in the game, which is why Classified-to-Covert contracts attract the most attention from traders looking for positive expected value.
Market prices move constantly, so any specific contract that was profitable last week may not be profitable today. The best approach is to use this calculator alongside current Steam Market pricing to evaluate contracts based on live data rather than outdated guides. Community resources including csfloat.com, dedicated trading Discord servers, and CS2 skin investment forums regularly surface contracts that community members have verified as profitable at current prices. Cross-referencing those community findings with your own calculator output is the most reliable way to find contracts worth committing to.